News

Job Seekers Faced with Wary Employers

Published on Tuesday, March 9, 2010 at 10:38:00 AM EST by CrossBorder Solutions Inc.

The following is an excerpt from today's "globeandmail.com".

It's shaping up to be a jobless recovery, as Canada's public sector starts to reduce employment while companies remain hesitant to hire.

The economy may have revved back to life at the end of last year, but cautious employers are more likely to boost the hours of existing workers, or hire people on a temporary basis, before they take on new full-time staff.

In the meantime, belt-tightening in the public sector - the key source of job creation last year - is now triggering hiring freezes and layoffs. Treasury Board President Stockwell Day said yesterday he is eliminating 245 federal positions from government boards and agencies. B.C. said last week it plans to eliminate 3,500 full-time equivalent positions in the coming years. Cities such as Toronto are in a hiring freeze.

That suggests little job growth this year even if the economic recovery solidifies, economists said. It will take at least another year, and maybe two, to recover all of the 280,000 lost jobs in the recession, said Sébastien Lavoie, assistant chief economist at Laurentian Bank Securities.

"It looks like we'll have to wait until 2011 to see as many Canadians working as before the recession," he said, adding that he expects job creation of just 125,000 positions this year.

Indeed, three-quarters of businesses don't plan to change their head count in the coming months, Manpower Canada said in a survey to be released today showing the employment outlook actually deteriorated for the second quarter from the first. Seventeen per cent of employers plan to hire in the coming quarter, 6 per cent see layoffs and 75 per cent anticipate no change.

Hiring intentions in public administration have declined from both the previous quarter and last year, the Manpower survey shows.The results "reinforce the sense that this is a jobless recovery," said Byrne Luft, the firm's vice-president of marketing. "We're moving out of this quite slowly."

Employment tends to lag economic recoveries by six months, so he doesn't see much job growth until the third quarter of this year. His own staffing firm is seeing demand grow for temporary workers in areas such as information technology.

The cities with the country's brightest hiring outlook are Regina, Niagara Falls and Fredericton, N.B. The bleakest is in Red Deer, Alta., along with Northumberland county and Hamilton in Ontario.

With so much uncertainty about the sustainability of the recovery - given that governments will be withdrawing stimulus spending and shifting into deficit-cutting mode, interest rates will start to climb and global demand is still uneven "there's a lot to think about before you commit yourself to a new hire," said Benjamin Tal, senior economist at CIBC World Markets. "I really don't see a V-shaped recovery for the labour market."...

A quarterly small-business survey to be released today, meanwhile, shows 38 per cent of firms plan to hire in the next year - indicating 62 per cent don't expect to add to payrolls.

The small-business survey, by American Express, showed that, of those who do plan to add staff, about half are looking for full-time, permanent employees.

***

SHIFTING LANDSCAPE FOR LABOUR MARKET

In coming years, Canada's labour market will see one of the biggest shifts in its history as baby boomers retire and temporary work increases - both of which have ramifications for employees and employers alike.

"Very significant" challenges will need to be addressed if the country is to maintain its standard of living, Toronto-Dominion Bank economists Don Drummond and Francis Fong said in a paper published yesterday about Canada's changing workplace. They highlight five key issues:

More than a third of the work force plans to retire in the next two decades. That, coupled with low fertility rates, will cause the labour market to slow and may force employers to increase wages to attract workers.

Under-represented segments of the population, such as immigrants, aboriginals, women and older workers, must be utilized more efficiently. Better inclusion of each group poses its own set of challenges: Women still face a big gender wage gap; immigrants are at a higher risk of falling into low-income status; and only half of aboriginal people on reserves have a high-school diploma.

Higher education is becoming ever more important.

In the next five years, about two-thirds of new jobs will need postsecondary education. Yet only about half of Canadians have such education. Access will need to be improved, particularly among low-income students.

Well-paid, full-time jobs with good benefits and pensions have been replaced by temporary or contract jobs without benefits. As well, private employer-sponsored pensions are disappearing, suggesting more Canadians will have to finance their own retirements.

Literacy remains inadequate. Almost four in 10 young Canadians lack reading skills and more than two in 10 university grads don't have appropriate English or French literacy skills. The problem is particularly dire among new immigrants. "For the most part, the consequences of these trends are negative: slowing labour force and productivity growth pose significant downside risk to overall economic growth and the standards of living of Canadians," the report said. "Overcoming these challenges merits the immediate attention of employers as the solutions must come from a complete overhaul of how we consider the labour force."
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Myriad of customs issues facing Canadian importers

Published on Monday, March 8, 2010 at 12:45:00 PM EST by CrossBorder Solutions Inc.

A contribution by I.E.Canada

March 8, 2010

Canada is a trading nation and as a result Canadian businesses deal with complex trade regulations and rapidly changing processes on a daily basis. When asked what their most pressing concerns are, businesses surveyed by I.E.Canada – the Canadian Association of Importers and Exporters – consistently rank trade and customs issues among their top concerns.

This is not surprising when you consider that in addition to everyday business concerns, importers and exporters have the added burden of customs and security programs and the technological challenges that go along with them, as well as supply chain issues that can range from varying transportation infrastructure capabilities to international financing strategies.

Canada has put in place many programs that determine what and how businesses can import and export, with the aim of ensuring the security, health and safety of Canadians while facilitating legitimate trade. The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) administers most customs programs and ensures compliance to trade rules. CBSA is currently revamping and further developing many trade programs. While the aim is ultimately to expedite and improve trade processes, implementation growing pains are being felt by many businesses.

Trusted trader programs, such as Partners in Protection (PIP) in Canada and Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism (C-TPAT) in the U.S., require significant investment on the part of businesses that undertake the certification process. Both programs are voluntary, but for those that choose to participate, there can be significant capital, human and financial resources involved to meet the minimum security requirements. It can prove to be prohibitive for small and medium-sized companies.

The aim of securing the trade chain is widely supported, and 75 per cent of the companies that recently completed an I.E.Canada survey and indicated they had undertaken the PIP certification process said that they would recommend it. Yet they do acknowledge that becoming PIP certified requires a tremendous investment. They would like to see shorter time frames for application processing and for site validations, steps that are a necessary part of becoming PIP certified. Companies feel that one of the main benefits of participating in the PIP program is the fact that PIP and C-TPAT have achieved mutual recognition, meaning that businesses that are PIP certified are also seen as meeting the U.S. C-TPAT requirements. They support PIP’s efforts to gain mutual recognition with programs in other countries. Another key benefit companies see from their participation in PIP is an improved relationship with CBSA, which results in fewer inspections.

Getting goods across borders requires the transmission of massive amounts of information, and processing this data along with a shipment is a challenge. CBSA has been working to expand its systems through the phased-in implementation of Advance Commercial Information (ACI), intended to enhance security while expediting trade processing at the border. ACI Phase I brought advance carrier and conveyance data to the marine mode, while Phase II applied to air shipments. Under the current phase (ACI Phase III, referred to as eManifest), ACI will be brought to the highway and rail modes. In addition, freight forwarders will be required to transmit secondary (house bill) data, and importers or their brokers will have to transmit advance trade data (ATD), formerly referred to as importer admissibility data, electronically in advance in all modes of transportation. This change will impact the business processes of carriers and importers and will require all parties in the supply chain to work together to ensure that the right information gets to the right place at the right time.

Currently, CBSA is undertaking the implementation of eManifest highway. The equivalent system in the U.S. is known as ACE eManifest, and is already in place for goods travelling by highway into the U.S. CBSA will be able to begin accepting carrier and conveyance data in the highway mode via electronic data interchange (EDI) in June. CBSA is also developing a web portal that is anticipated to be available by fall. One year following the availability of the web portal, eManifest highway will become mandatory, although there will be a six-month informed compliance period.

The biggest challenge for importers will come in 2012 when CBSA will begin implementation of ATD requirements for importers. ATD is similar to the importer security filing (the 10 data elements required from importers under ‘10 + 2’) in the United States. Under this initiative, importers are required to transmit eight data elements 24 hours prior to lading and an additional two data elements 24 hours prior to arrival. Unlike in the U.S., however, which has implemented this new importer security filing in the marine mode only, CBSA is planning to impose ATD on importers in all modes: marine, air, rail and highway. While there will be fewer data elements in the other modes, industry is concerned that implementation of ATD as planned will have a serious negative impact on the competitiveness of Canadian business by increasing the costs of brokerage, warehousing and services, and by causing delays in shipments and manufacturing production.

As an alternative to ACI, some importers are choosing the Customs Self Assessment (CSA) program, which is designed, among other things, to expedite the customs clearance of shipments for low-risk, pre-approved importers. Provided they use a pre-approved carrier and a registered driver, CSA importers benefit from an expedited clearance option, which allows them to supply just three data elements – the importer, the carrier and the driver – for CSA eligible goods.

Originally, the CSA program applied only to goods of U.S. origin and to automotive goods from Mexico. CBSA has recently expanded the program to include all goods from Mexico. The agency has also developed a working proposal for an offshore clearance option in consultation with importers through associations such as I.E.Canada. Under this proposal, the CSA importer would be required to provided enhanced Trade Chain Partner data for offshore shipments; the carrier will be required to provide full advance data (including information on crew, cargo and conveyance); and CSA importers will be obligated to confirm that the shipment is legitimate by providing information on a transactional basis, electronically and in advance in accordance with the ACI timeframes for importer admissibility data.

As CBSA moves forward with the ATD requirement, more companies will look to the CSA program. It provides a greater degree of certa­inty since fewer data requirements mean that the risk of error or omissions resulting in delays is reduced. Businesses are urging CBSA to continue the expansion of CSA in order to provide them with a viable alternative to ACI, but in order for this to happen, CBSA needs to offer CSA clearance in all transportation modes.

CBSA is not the only government agency or department that requires information and documentation relating to imports. In an effort to ease the burden on business, the government has undertaken the OGD Single Window Initiative that is intended to promote capture of the data required by other government departments and agencies through electronic means and to allow for a single point of contact with government through the CBSA. There are currently 10 other government departments (OGDs), in addition to the CBSA, participating in the OGD Single Window initiative, including the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Health Canada and Environment Canada, representing over 40 programs. CBSA and the OGDs are looking at areas to improve service to the trade community, including, for example, a single authoritative source for regulatory information. But they’re not there yet; much consultation is still required with the business community on issues such as the specific data that will be required under the many OGD programs.

CBSA has also recognized that there is room to improve its approach to service. As part of the federal government’s commitment to reduce paperwork, CBSA established a Business Simplification Initiative in partnership with the trade community. As part of this initiative, CBSA has been taking steps to reduce the administrative burden its policies and programs impose on Canadian business and to institutionalize a culture of business simplification within the agency. CBSA has realized that there are areas for improvement in the delivery of its programs. Research has shown that customs administrations in countries such as Australia, New Zealand and the United States have established solid, service-oriented models. CBSA president Stephen Rigby has identified the creation of a service strategy as a priority with the aims being to strengthen the CBSA’s culture of service; reduce paperwork; simplify how business and travellers interact with the agency; reduce the cost of compliance; and increase accountability through the measurement of service standards.

While there are trade benefits for those shippers that are low risk – compliant importers and exporters, businesses that fail to comply with customs regulations face both shipment delays and administrative monetary penalties. Under the Administrative Monetary Penalty System (AMPS), CBSA assesses monetary penalties for non-compliance with customs requirements. After several years of consultations, CBSA is currently implementing changes to the AMPS regime. The objective is to simplify the AMPS regime by collapsing the current contraventions to 79 from 246 with a new penalty structure based on risk. In other words, penalty amounts will be higher where the contravention is considered to present a higher degree of risk. Under a revised AMPS implementation plan, as of April, the new penalty amounts will be in place for the existing AMPS contraventions; however, the new collapsed penalty structure, which will require significant systems, will not be implemented until fiscal year 2011-12.

While Canadian businesses import many products and services, they are also active in the export business and must meet export requirements imposed by Canadian authorities. Export controls serve an important and valuable end by ensuring that certain sensitive goods and technology do not fall into the hands of certain countries, especially those involved in weapons of mass destruction, terrorism or diversion to unacceptable uses. To meet these aims, most countries, including Canada, impose export controls on a wide range of goods and technologies destined to a wide range of countries and end uses.

Canada has maintained a system that requires individual permits for controlled goods with relatively few exceptions. This system is not always the most efficient; uncertainty or delays in getting the necessary permits has an adverse impact on Canadian business.

Most of Canada’s major trading partners, including the United States, appear to have adopted expedited licensing procedures for a broad range of goods to a broad range of allied and friendly countries, thus reducing the number of individual export permits/licences required. The result is a trade advantage to companies located in those countries and a trade disadvantage to Canadian companies.

A white paper, currently being drafted by I.E.Canada, compares specific aspects of Canada’s export control system with those of most of its major trading partners. Some of the issues that will be addressed include: the need to balance trade and security; the recent announcements in the United States of changes to U.S. export controls that will further widen the gap between Canadian and U.S. export control procedures; and the need for Canadian industry to be able to compete on a level playing field with its major trading partners. It will also include specific recommendations on how the Canadian government can improve the administration of the existing export controls regime.

Customs rules and regulations aside, Canadian industry is also faced with the increasingly urgent issue of an aging infrastructure. The current state and capacity of our roadways, rail systems and airports concerns most any business, but particularly those that rely on the transportation of parts and products as a key component of their business. A report recently released by the Institute for Research on Public Policy estimates that Canada requires a $200-billion investment in public infrastructure to remain competitive.

Yet even an obvious issue fails to have a simple solution. The Windsor-Detroit gateway is the busiest border crossing between Canada and the U.S., and plans for the construction of a new bridge, the Detroit River International Crossing (DRIC), appeared to be well underway. A new bridge would help ease congestion on the Ambassador Bridge, provide more direct highway access to the new bridge and serve as an alternate crossing in the case of an emergency, such as an accident or terrorist incident. In 2009, the Ontario government began construction on its part of the connecting highway link. However, political manoeuvring in the Michigan legislature is now putting the future of the long-awaited second bridge in the Windsor-Detroit area in doubt. The fate of the new bridge will be determined in June when the issue will come before Michigan legislators.

At the end of the day, the Canadian economy relies on our importers and exporters to remain competitive. The import content of Canadian exports continues to rise; recent reports from Export Development Canada (EDC) showed that, on average, import inputs into Canadian products runs on average 30 to 35 per cent. This means that our customs and trade processes need to be effective and efficient. Maintaining Canada’s position as a strong global economy must remain a priority for businesses, policy-makers, financial institutions, service providers and consumers. Applying the highest standards to our import and export processes, both in terms of regulatory and business practices, will put Canada in the lead as a trading nation and ultimately make us a globally competitive nation.

More information about the topics listed in this article and on the latest trade policies and programs, both at home and abroad, will be featured at I.E.Canada’s Emerging Issues in Customs and Trade Compliance conference in Toronto on April 19-21. Canadian Sailings is a media sponsor of the conference. For information, contact Fée Kiessling at fkiessling@iecanada.com. For more information about I.E.Canada, visit www.iecanada.com.





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Budget 2010: A second year of stimulus spending

Published on Friday, March 5, 2010 at 11:39:00 AM EST by CrossBorder Solutions Inc.

Excerpted from the National Post, Mar. 4, 2010

OTTAWA -- The Conservative government sketched out on Thursday its initial plans to return to budget balance, by targeting cuts in the public service, a freeze on foreign aid, limited growth in military spending and higher EI premiums.

The spending restraint, outlined in its 2010 budget, would net $17.6-billion in savings over five years and bring the deficit down from a high of $53.8-billion this fiscal year, ending March 31, to a low of $1.8-billion by 2015.

Before the cuts kick in, however, the Conservative government said it was committed to spend $19-billion as part of year two of the two-year $47-billion stimulus package aimed at resuscitating the economy after the global financial crisis.

The 451-page budget sets out how the Conservatives plan to meet all its goals -- of creating jobs and bolstering Canada's long-term competitiveness, while at the same time returning to surplus without tax increases, nor cuts to transfers to provinces and individuals. The government also said it would go through with cuts to corporate income taxes, from 19% to 15% by 2012, despite calls from opposition politicians to cancel them and use the money to help seniors and the poor.

"We are building Canada's reputation as an investment-friendly country," Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said in his budget speech. "A country committed to free and open trade, unburdened by massive debts and [the] higher taxes of our competitors."

All the opposition parties vowed to vote against the budget -- although Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff said his party would not bring down the government and force an election by withholding the number of Liberal MPs who show up to vote.

Even though Canada's economy is recovering at a rather robust clip of late -- 5% growth was recorded in the final quarter of 2009 -- Mr. Flaherty said following through with more stimuli is the right thing to do as the global recovery is in its nascent stages.

Measures linked with the stimulus plan will expire as of March next year, and with it comes a plan to return to budget balance.

Overall, analysts said the budget struck a fair balance between adding momentum to the recovery from a deep recession, and preparing the economy for fiscal restraint.

"It is not a dramatic change of course, and in uncertain economic times you want a steady hand. And we are getting a steady hand," said Craig Wright, chief economist with Royal Bank of Canada.

For some, such as the NDP, there wasn't enough money to help the unemployed or the poor. Others said there wasn't enough on the spending-cut side.

"A plan to balance the budget should actually balance the budget and this doesn't do that," said Kevin Gaudet, federal director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. "Restraint delayed is restraint denied. Taxpayers have heard similar promises of restraint before. Canadians will believe it when they see it."

There were some new spending measures, although minor, such as extending a work-sharing program at a cost of over $100-million, and eliminating all tariffs on imported industrial inputs at cost of $1.2-billion over five years.

According to the government's plan, the $53.8-billion deficit will be cut in half in two years time, and by two-thirds in three years. Much of that will be due to allowing the stimulus plan, and its associated measures, expire in March 2011.

The government envisages robust growth in revenue, starting in the 2010-11 fiscal year, and will grow thereafter based on, among other things, four consecutive years of higher Employment Insurance premiums, which business leaders describe as a payroll tax.

Economists at Toronto-Dominion Bank have calculated that EI premiums will rise from the present $1.73 level to $2.33 by 2015, in an effort to return the EI account to balance. As a result, that will contribute nearly one quarter to the overall improvement to federal revenue over the next half decade, they said in a note.

On spending, the government will introduce legislation to freeze the salaries of all MPs and Senators for the next three fiscal years.

Also, Ottawa is eyeing $6.8-billion in savings through containing the operating costs of federal departments. Departments' operating budgets will be frozen in 2011 and 2012 at 2010 levels. Further, a 1.5% wage increase owed to unionized workers in 2010, at a cost of $300-million, has to be funded through cuts within departments.

The government also plans to cap growth in defence spending, which doubled to $20-billion in the previous decade. Restraint doesn't begin until 2012, and the efforts aim to achieve savings of $2.5-billion by 2015. Meanwhile, foreign aid will reach $5-billion this coming fiscal year, and increase no further, and be subject to review on a year-by-year basis.

Overall, after the stimulus package expires, program spending is set to increase at on an annual basis of between 1.5% and 2.5%. This could be quite the feat, as prior to the recession program spending grew at roughly 6% to 7% a year.

Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, said the government's plan is banking on a well-entrenched U.S. and global economic recovery as of next year to smooth the way toward stimulus removal.

"The big question mark is whether the economy can withstand the abrupt removal of stimulus a year from now," he said. "To me, that's the real test."

The budget's underlying forecast envisages economic growth of 2.6% this year (below the Bank of Canada's forecast), 3.2% in 2011 and 3% in 2012.

At a media conference during a lockup for reporters, Mr. Flaherty said if the economic growth projections fell short, his government was prepared to "do more" in terms of spending restraint.

 

Throne Speech Warns of Spending Cuts

Published on Thursday, March 4, 2010 at 9:37:00 AM EST by CrossBorder Solutions Inc.

Throne speech warns of spending cuts

The following is excerpted from today's edition of "CBC News".

Freezing the salaries of federal politicians, restraining overall government spending and a possible change to the wording of the national anthem were among the initiatives unveiled in the Conservative government's speech from the throne on Wednesday....

The government said jobs and growth will remain the top priority as effects of the recession linger.

"This will require a return to fiscal balance, securing the strong budgetary position that distinguishes our country from so many others," Jean said.

The government said part of its plan to restore fiscal balance and tackle the $56-billion deficit is to restrain federal program spending overall, although pensions, education and health care would be exempt from cuts.

As well, stimulus spending and other measures under the Tories' economic stimulus plan will end by March 31, 2011.

The government said it will freeze the salaries of the prime minister, cabinet ministers, members of Parliament and senators to lead by example in its efforts to cut costs. The Tories also want to freeze the overall budget of ministers' offices and are urging all MPs and senators to do the same.

The Tories are also calling for a freeze in the total amount spent on salaries, administration and overhead in government departments.

The federal government is also looking to loosen foreign ownership restrictions on telecommunications companies, a move that would open Canada to service providers from other countries.

Focusing on crime, the government will also reintroduce, in its original form, the consumer safety bill and the anti-drug-crime legislation.

The government also plans to create legislation to increase penalties for sexual offences against children and strengthen the sex offender registry.

As well, new legislation would give families of murder victims access to special benefits under Employment Insurance. Employees of federally regulated industries would also have the right to unpaid leave if they or their family members are crime victims.

 

Economy hotter than estimated, Bank of Canada say

Published on Wednesday, March 3, 2010 at 11:10:00 AM EST by CrossBorder Solutions Inc.

Economy hotter than estimated, Bank of Canada says

The following is excerpted from the 2 March 2010 edition of "globeandmail.com".

The Bank of Canada kept its benchmark lending rate at a historic low of 0.25 per cent Tuesday, while hinting that policy makers are on closer watch for shifts in the inflation outlook that might force them to rethink their pledge to stay on hold through mid-year.

In the statement accompanying Tuesday's decision, Governor Mark Carney and his rate-setting panel acknowledged that growth and inflation have been hotter than policy makers estimated in their January forecast, saying the economy's 5-per-cent growth in the fourth quarter was “spurred by vigorous domestic spending and further recovery in exports.”

Also, in a nod to the fact that readings of core inflation, which exclude volatile items, came at the central bank's 2-per-cent target in January, sooner than policy makers had anticipated, they struck a somewhat more hawkish tone on price gains. The cental bank said the risks to their inflation outlook are now “roughly balanced” as opposed to language from previous statements that had said the risks were lower.
 

Shippers Dissatisfied with Rail Service

Published on Wednesday, March 3, 2010 at 11:05:00 AM EST by CrossBorder Solutions Inc.

The NRG Research Group of Winnipeg found a low level of satisfaction among 262 shippers it surveyed for the federal level of service review. Only 17 per cent of shippers said they were happy with the railways. In most satisfaction research, at least half of the customers would be in that category, NRG observed.

Meanwhile, one-third of respondents assigned low grades to their railway service and nearly half said their satisfaction level had deceased over the last three years. Almost two-thirds said they have “suffered a serious financial impact as a result of poor rail freight service.” About one-quarter of shippers with more than one rail connection option are very satisfied with the service they receive, while 14 per cent that have access to only one rail line are very satisfied.

NRG found most shipper dissatisfaction is linked to problems with:

• On-time delivery of cars at origin and destination;

• Timely pick-up of empty cars after unloading;

• Reliability of car supply, including timely release of cars into the system;

• Consistent transit times; and

• Responsiveness of railways to problems.

Survey respondents said that while CN is the more efficient railway, it needs “to focus more attention on its customers and their service needs.”

By a 2 to 1 score, shippers said they are more satisfied with CP’s service than CN’s. CN was credited with being better at tracking shipments, moving traffic quickly from origin to destination and achieving consistent transit times from origin to destination.

On the other hand, CP got the nod for professional and knowledgeable staff, responding when problems arise and offering frequent service. It was judged slightly better than CN at placing cars at origin on time.

Meanwhile, a report by the Quorum Group of Edmonton for the review panel outlined the challenges facing the two carriers in operating nearly 1,300 trains a day for hundreds of customers.

“To deliver effective rail transportation services to shippers, receivers, ports and terminals, every day they must plan, schedule and manage nearly 2,000 train crews, 3,000 locomotives and 200,000 rail cars,” the report said. “They must also co-ordinate the interchange of an estimated 10,000 rail cars per day with other railways, including some 49 short-line operators.”

 

Global trade wakes up as stimulus kicks in

Published on Friday, January 15, 2010 at 4:07:00 PM EST by CrossBorder Solutions

The following is excerpted from today's edition of the "globeandmail.com".

Global trade is on a slow but steady rebound as government stimulus programs spur demand and production in economies around the world.

The turnaround is somewhat uneven, and in some countries import growth is dramatically outpacing increases in exports, but gains in sales abroad are also expected to pick up as the worldwide recovery solidifies.

"Trade growth has come back substantially from where it was," said Steve Dunaway, adjunct senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. "By the middle of last year, everyone was looking at declines in export growth. Export growth has a tendency to lag output growth, so it's not surprising that it's a little bit weaker than some of the indicators for output growth."

Canada tipped back into a trade deficit in November as the improving domestic economy caused imports to rise at more than three times the pace of exports, which are improving but still 19 per cent below year-earlier levels.

In the United States, the trade gap widened more than expected as imports outpaced exports because of higher oil prices and companies worked to replenish inventories. However, U.S. exports increased for the seventh successive month.

Exports grew faster than imports in Britain, one of the last big developed nations that hasn't yet seen a return to economic growth. In Japan, where imports were 18 per cent lower than a year earlier because demand remains static, the country had the smallest year-over-year export drop in 14 months on the strength of car sales elsewhere in Asia. And in China, exports jumped in December for the first time in 14 months.

With the exception of China, where not-yet-started infrastructure projects will mean the effects of government largesse are felt longer than in other nations, Mr. Dunaway said, many key economies are so dependent on stimulus spending that it's too soon to gauge the staying power of their recoveries.

For Canadian companies, there is reason for cautious optimism but trade is likely to remain choppy, said Peter Hall, chief economist of Export Development Canada.

"In the heaving seas between the end of recession and the beginning of a recovery, it's just a volatile zone," Mr. Hall said....

Even as a survey released yesterday indicates growing confidence among exporters, several hurdles remain, Mr. Hall said. It's unclear how economies will grow once government spending tapers off. Financial markets remain "fragile." Domestic demand in the U.S., Western Europe and Japan is still shaky. And the Canadian dollar remains strong.

Still, companies are adapting, he said, taking more steps to live with a high dollar, such as hedging - using a variety of strategies to reduce exposure to currency swings - re-jigging production lines and taking advantage of cheaper imports of equipment and machinery. The share of Canadian exporters that hedge to protect themselves from volatility in currency markets has risen to 19 per cent from 15 per cent in the spring, according to EDC's semi-annual trade confidence index....


***

Global snapshots

U.S.

Trade deficit, November: $36.4-billion (U.S.)

Exports: Up 0.9% from previous month to highest level in more than a year.

Imports: Up 2.6 per cent as oil prices jumped.

Trend: As demand from consumers and businesses recovers, imports will keep rising. The weaker U.S. dollar will help U.S. products overseas.

U.K.

Trade deficit, November: £6.8-billion ($11-billion U.S.).

Exports: Sales to China jumped 21 per cent from a year ago and sales to Hong Kong rose 15 per cent. Average export prices fell 0.4 per cent from earlier month.

Imports: Dropped even as average import prices were down 0.6-per cent from October.

Trend: Weaker pound may eventually boost British exports

further.

Canada

Trade deficit, November: $344-million (Canadian).

Exports: Up 1.1 per cent from month earlier.

Imports: Up 3.9 per cent from October..

Trend: While trade picture has improved in recent months, it's still off pre-recession levels, with exports down 19 per cent from November 2008.

China

Trade surplus, December: $18.4-billion (U.S.).

Exports: Up almost 18 per cent from year earlier, to $130.7-billion.

Imports: Soared 56 per cent to $112.3-billion.

Trend: Import gain provides more evidence that China is at risk of overheating. Export growth may increase calls for China to let its currency appreciate against the greenback.

Japan

Current account surplus, November: 1.1-trillion yen.

Exports: Down 7 per cent from a year earlier, amid stronger demand for cars spurred by exports to Asia. Imports: Down 18.2 per cent from a year earlier, reflecting sluggish domestic demand.

Trend: Export picture, though still down, is improving.